How Not to Learn a Lesson

You’d think that with all the controversy surrounding media hype, inaccurate previews, publisher pressure and the internet’s eagle-eyed denizens who, among other things, are able to discern the number of pixels actually used in games, that publishers would wise up about releasing doctored gameplay photos of their games.

You’d think that this would be even more the case with Guerilla, the team responsible for Killzone 2, since they were already criticized for trying to pass off a CG trailer as gameplay footage back in 2005 and actually given somewhat of a reprieve this year when they showed a real gameplay trailer that actually came somewhat close (according to media reports anyway) to matching the fake 2005 one.  But some people apparently just don’t learn from their mistakes, as Guerilla has admitted that recently released screenshots are “the tiniest bit touched up.”  Here’s the comparison shot provided:

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Double-Facing Kotaku On The PSP

I’m going to both agree and disagree with Kotaku (or more specifically, with Mark Wilson) simultaneously.  Jason Chen of Gizmodo wrote a column entitled “Why the PSP Might Overtake the DS.”  It was, as Wilson points out, an interesting variation of Xeno’s Paradox - well-reasoned, articulate, and deeply flawed.  I’ll provide an overview of the article, then discuss why the entire conversation is off-base.

Chen’s post contains 8 pieces of evidence for the PSP’s ultimate domination.  I’ll let you read them in detail or yourself, but they all fall into one of three categories:

• Sales momentum: The PSP has sold 1M units in Japan in two months, sales for the PSP are up while the DS’s are down, and the PSP has sold as many units as the PS2.
• Product quality: The PSP has more highly-rated games, as well as more add-ons and media interactivity.

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Riddle Me This…

How exactly can SCEA state that they don’t disclose console unit sales until NPD releases them, while providing percentage increase figures over a previously disclosed figure?  Moreover, it seems quite odd to dispute a competitor’s claims while not providing evidence of that claim.

Does that mean Microsoft is correct?  By no means.  But it would’ve made sense to wait to prove it.

Killing The Messenger

It’s fashionable (for obvious reasons) to beat up on Sony, but I don’t know that it’s fair to blame their advertising agency for the PS3’s troubles.  The issue, as always, has been much more of an internal marketing problem - primarily around feature inclusion and pricing - rather than an ad-based issue.

Can you really blame TBWA/Chiat/Day for failing to sell a product that was, barring some obvious design and price problems, practically able to sell itself?  I think you’re deluding yourself if you try to argue that the PS3 was going to fly off the shelves… if the agency had just come up with some better advertising.

Fun With Statistics, Part IV

You have to love a press release that names percentages rather than whole numbers.  For example, this Sony release on the sales of PS3s this Black Friday vs. last year’s.  When you have nice round numbers like 178%, you know things are looking good.

Square Struggles, Sony Cries (Update)

It seems like I’m reporting a new one of these every week now.

Destructoid is reporting that at Square’s recent yearly fiscal meeting they announced that Final Fantasy XIII may not make it out until 2009. Apparently, they are having trouble developing the “White Engine”, which is supposed to power all of their PS3 development.

I can’t say I’m extremely surprised with the news, as we’ve heard next to nothing about the game since the first “footage” of the game was released. But once again, another huge title for the PS3 looks like it’s being pushed back to the point of what could be near irrelevance. By the time it comes out, Microsoft will probably already be talking about its next console and we’ll probably start hearing rumors about the next Playstation and Wii. Obviously, it’ll still be a big release, but with rumors swirling about the NEXT system, it doesn’t seem like it will have nearly the impact that it could have had if released on time.

As a side note, it’s still unbelievable to me how many companies have had trouble creating game engines for the PS3. Valve, Epic Games, Bethesda, Ubisoft. Midway, and EA have all experienced issues either releasing games on time or getting their engines up to par with the 360 version. How could Sony made such an impossible to develop for console? The only company that seems to be able to do amazing things with the hardware is Insomniac. If only Sony had several companies like them, then they wouldn’t have to worry as much about their big exclusive 3rd party games not releasing on time.

*Update* - In yet another exclusive (and unsurprising) delay, Joystiq is reporting that Haze has been delayed until next year. Although Haze doesn’t have nearly the following (or hype) that a game like Final Fantasy has, Sony still seems to have an epidemic of delays on its hands. Will Little Big Planet make it in Q1 next year?

What happens if my 60GB PS3 Breaks?

Has this been addressed yet?  With Sony having phased out all of the fully backwards compatible PS3s in under a year, I’m starting to worry about what happens if (when?) my PS3 fails.

Already this generation I’ve had problems with my 360 (bad USB port) and Wii (stray pixel issue) that required me to send my system back to the manufacturers for repair (in the 360’s case) or replacement (in the Wii’s case).  Maybe the next generation of hardware will take reliability seriously, but since this generation basically hasn’t, I’d at least like my repair processes to go smoothly.

My PS3, since I’ve had it, already makes strange “clicking” sounds when I’m running something on it.  It doesn’t quite sound like hard drive clicking, but it’s still a bit worrisome.  The only reason I haven’t done anything about it yet is because my games have seemed to work just fine (with an occasional freeze, unfortunately something else common to this generation anyway), until just recently.  During one of my Ratchet and Clank Future sessions my audio and video became seriously out of synch during cutscenes. There is a stutter (like, “R-r-r-Ratchet” instead of just “Ratchet”) and then suddenly the visuals (including the lip synching) doesn’t match the audio that’s playing.   So far it’s happened only once, but I haven’t heard anyone else mention it yet as a problem with R&C, so I’m chalking it up to my PS3.

So my question is, if my currently fully backwards compatible system breaks now, will I get a fully backwards compatible system back?  Quite honestly, the biggest factor for me in buying the PS3 when I did was ensuring I had backwards compatibility.  I’d be extremely angry if they were not able to guarantee that I’d get a backwards compatible system back if I sent in my system for repair.  Hell, if they make the 40GB SKU their “main” one, I don’t even know if I’d get as big a hard drive back in the process.  Maybe Sony would send one of their new $100 PS2 consoles as a consolation for making me downgrade to an inferior version of their product, despite the fact that it still mostly defeats the purpose of having a backwards compatible system to begin with.

The removal of all backwards compatibility (after it was available initially) has to be the biggest change to a console’s capabilities during its run, especially so early in its lifetime.  The Gamecube removed its component output, which was annoying for some late adopters, but at least it could still play all the same games and component, particularly Progressive Scan capable component, was still not widely available on TVs anyway.  The PS2 Slim I believe made just a couple more PS1 games incompatible.  Other than that, can anyone else think of another supposed version of the “same” product that’s actually removed as much capability as the PS3 has now, and what exactly did that company do to support the older, more fully featured products?

The First Nail?

I’ve said before that Sony had better hope that MGS4 and FFXIII don’t get delayed.  Well, so much for that.  MGS4 was just delayed to Q2 2008 “in order to make further improvements to the quality of the game and provide even greater enjoyment for more customers worldwide.”  That means the earliest it could come would be April 2008 (if my calculations are correct, despite Kotaku suggesting March), although my (admittedly arbitrary) guess is that it will actually come out closer to June, or be delayed again until closer to the holiday season (if they’re any indication, both MGS2 and 3 launched in mid-November, and MGS1 launched at the end of September).

Sony has already had to excise backwards compatibility and slash the price of their PS3 $200 within the first year of launch.  They’ve just doubled their projection for losses in their game unit to over 100 billion yen for the year. Having perhaps their biggest potential system seller delayed even a little as the 360 and Wii continue to pick up steam can’t be making them feel any better.

What can Sony do?

Aegies over at Eat-Sleep-Game has an interesting analysis of whether the rumored $400 40GB PS3 can actually help save Sony from the Gamecube’s fate. I generally agree with his points, which are summarized below:

1) A strong software lineup for the 360, combined with more reliable hardware, will be difficult for Sony to match.  There are still no real killer apps for the system, and several PS3 exclusives, like Unreal Tournament 3, have been delayed until next year.

2) Sony hasn’t been able to demonstrate a significant technological advantage for the PS3 over the 360.  In fact, many multi-platform games have so far shown the opposite, and come out substantially later than the 360 version.

3) The cheaper PS3s continue to actually remove features, such as backwards compatibility, which would potentially be a huge asset to the 120M+ PS2 owners in the world.

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PS3 is the new Gamecube

According to a Gamepro analysis (via Kotaku), the PS3 is on track to sell worse than the Gamecube, assuming it continues to sell as horribly as it has.  Over their respective first 10 months available, the Gamecube actually sold 22% more units than the PS3.  Considering Sony’s huge advantage in the last generation, this is obviously a huge problem for them.  Apparently, PS2 owners are either not upgrading or are moving to another system.  Almost a year into the launch with no standout killer app and games still being delayed due to “technical difficulties”, I still wonder whether they should’ve just taken Gabe Newell’s advice.  After all, it does almost seem like the PS3 launch last year was sort of unnecessary, given the PS2’s huge market and the PS3’s obvious lack of games this year.  Sure, giving Microsoft a 2-year “head start” in this generation, particularly after Halo 3, could’ve easily been a disaster as well, but if they were able to continue leveraging the PS2 for profit while actually preparing a reasonable launch lineup at a price people were willing to pay instead of what they did, I have to imagine that would’ve been better for them in the long run.  Although I suppose there were even other factors at play as well which may have made the launch unavoidable.

In any case, will cheaper 40GB PS3s and a couple promising titles this year be able to jumpstart the PS3 back to life in the face of the 360’s Halo 3 juggernaut and the Wii’s overall phenomenal success?

All I can say is that Sony had better hope Konami and Square finish up MGS4 and FFXIII as quickly as possible and avoid the “technical difficulties” that are plaguing just about every other developer.  If they come too late, even they may not be enough to save the PS3 from the same fate as the Gamecube.