Hello From Oz
December 29th, 2008So not much video game playing in Australia that I’ve been able to see myself, although obviously the industry is pretty big here. Of course, with so much to do, I’m not all that surprised.
In any case, thought I’d just drop a quick comment here then on this article. The WSJ notes that hope appears to be fading for the PS3 as a “comeback player,” to which I would say, obviously. I can’t think of a console that was lagging substantively several years into a generation that would be able to make the leap back into the lead. That’s the nature of a console generation: support initially leads to additional developer and consumer support, and it becomes a self-sustaining cycle. There’s definitely room in the early days for changes to occur, but it’s been over two years - when you consider that the average productive time for most consoles is around 5-7 years, the cycle makes it difficult to come back in a major way.
That said, the fact that the PS3 isn’t as big a success as the PS2 is to be expected… the PS2 was an outlier in the landscape of most consumer electronics devices (in terms of overall success), and as such, you can’t expect blockbusters every time. A modest success - or disappointment - now will at least set Sony up for a strong effort next time round.
Posted in Uncategorized |
December 29th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
“A modest success - or disappointment - now will at least set Sony up for a strong effort next time round.”
One can only hope. It took Nintendo 2 cycles to “sort things out”. My guess is that Sony is more adventurous and can probably shake it out in one. My interesting to me though is where MS stands with current rates of success/failure. What lessons are they taking away from the 360? Will they rush it again? What’s their lifecycle going to look like this time?
December 30th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
This cycle isn’t much like the others, but really, no two cycles have been alike. Sony fading in sales already is a very poor sign for them, and they’ve gone pretty much silent about games lately. With the 360 far ahead in total units, and more importantly, distantly leading in software sales, third parties have little choice but to focus on 360 above PS3.
As for MS, it’s certainly in their best interest to play the 360 as long as they can, to put as much time between the RROD plague and the new console as they can. It was a good move for them to launch first, but they won’t feel that pressure next time. Launching in the same time frame as the next Sony or Nintendo will be fine. And they’ll know not to come out a year later for 100-200 dollars more than the competition.
December 30th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
You make a lot of good points, although I think this one deserves closer inspection, “It was a good move for them to launch first”. I’m not sure I agree with that. The main results of launching first are twofold.
1. They got a 6 million unit headstart on Sony.
2. We now have the dreaded RRoD, which I think we can all agree happened because they rushed to launch first.
As the Wii has shown us, a successful console can devour a 6 million unit lead in less than a year, so I’m not sure that really did much to help them.
However, I’m confident that the reason it didn’t is because of the RRoD. Even non-gamers know about it. Only the hardcore would ever tolerate it. I’m confident that the RRoD has cost them more sales than the “first to launch” got them. I think without the RRoD/reliability issues, the 360 would likely be destroying the PS3, rather than simply eeking out a soft victory. And now what? The xbox brand is possibly permanently damaged. Were 6 million sales worth it? I don’t think so. I think the 360 would be in better position had it waited a year and released quiet, reliable hardware and a lower price point.
December 31st, 2008 at 1:32 am
Cisco-
I’m actually not as confident as you are that the early launch has cost them more than the 6M unit lead… and I think the value of those 6M is actually far more than just the hard numbers of a 6M head start.
While they did have hardware problems, the 360 basically had a full year to establish itself as the de-facto next-gen HD and online king… Nearly every 3rd party game now starts development on the 360 rather than the PS3. At the same time, they had a year to gather feedback on their console and service and were able to make improvements the entire time. Additionally, they were able to basically extend their opening the following year by having the blockbuster Gears of War come out, something Sony still has yet to really replicate (I’m guessing MGS4 is still the best PS3 seller, and it came out 1.5 years post-launch)… Now, I suppose they could’ve just launched with Gears of War instead and a (perhaps) improved Perfect Dark, though who knows what would’ve actually happened in that case.
In any case, Sony’s gambit with the PS3 may pay off in the end anyway, as there’s basically no question it won the next-gen DVD format war for them. As long as Blu-ray really does end up beating out standard DVD in the end, maybe Sony’s failure of a console can still be viewed as a successful format launch.
Also, as an aside, I’ve mentioned it before, but I’ve been using my PS3 quite a bit lately (as a Blu-ray player mostly) and it’s definitely as loud, if not louder, than my 360. Maybe there’s something wrong with it, though it hasn’t given me any issues yet.
December 31st, 2008 at 1:38 am
Nick-
As for the games… Killzone 2 is getting better than (I, at least) expected previews, and God of War is one of my favorite series, so definitely looking forward to GoW 3. Hopefully those come out in 2009 and are fantastic.
As for 360 exclusives… I have no idea, actually. Halo: Recon or whatever it’s called now? Could be a short and fun diversion, but probably not much else. I don’t think I’ll care for Halo Wars. I have no idea what else is coming out, though developers have been laying off and closing left and right, so probably lots of sequels and less innovation.
However, this year ended up surprisingly good in both exclusives and non-exclusives, far exceeding my own expectations, so maybe next year will too.
December 31st, 2008 at 9:42 am
“I think the value of those 6M is actually far more than just the hard numbers of a 6M head start.”
No Doubt. When I mention the six million unit lead, I’m assuming all the benefits of that lead, some of which you mention.
Anyway, my point is simply that MS should have been able to run away with the generation with a year headstart and 6 million unit. But, it was exactly the year headstart that ended up screwing them this gen. I guess the question is how badly it screwed them vs. how much it helped. I honestly think it hurt more than it helped. I think it would be more obvious had Sony not botched this generation so badly as well.