I’m Sure They Appreciate The Help
October 10th, 2008According to this Joystiq post, Sony is actually rooting for Microsoft to succeed in Japan, if for no other reason than that it promotes HD gaming over Nintendo’s own strategy. I’m sure that they’re grateful, but does this really make much sense? I’m not really convinced.
Let me pose a question: how many gamers, who previously owned a Playstation 2, XBox, or other third party device now exclusively own a Wii? I’m guessing it’s a fairly small amount. That’s because the basic premise of the Wii is quite smart: that gaming doesn’t require cutting-edge technology to be compelling. I completely agree, and I think most people would too. But Sony’s hope presupposes that gamers have been “convinced” by the Wii and that they will stay with this revelation for the foreseeble future. Most gamers are an ecumenical bunch, and will purchase consoles that they think provide the most fun.
The genius of the Wii is that it got people who weren’t interested in gaming to participate, in addition to attracting many gamers themselves. But I think Sony is probably kidding themselves if they think each console is a freestanding argument. People buy what’s fun; increasing 360 sales say a lot about what people think of the 360, but people aren’t going to make console purchases on some abstract principle.
Posted in Business, Geoff, Industry |
October 11th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Not sure how it plays into what you’re talking about, but I found it interesting that as of April 08 only 2 percent of US console owners had more than one console. The vast majority of US console owners don’t own one of the competitors. I wonder if this is similar in Japan. Somehow I doubt it.
October 11th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Cisco, do you have a link for that? I’m curious to see how it’s changed as consoles have gotten more expensive.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18107
October 12th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Cisco,
I think you’re misreading the report, although you’re aided by the poor phrasing. The common denominator is, as noted by some news sources, but not by others(http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/npd-72-of-us-plays-games-online-gaming-still-relatively-small/?biz=1), the total US population ages 6-44.
That means that 3% of the population ages 6-44 owns more than one next-gen console, not 3% of the gaming population. This makes sense if you think about console sales figures; in May 2008 the 360 had sold 10M consoles in the US, the Wii had a similar amount, and the PS3 stood somewhere around 3Mish (as far as I can tell). If you assume that total console sales thus total around 25M, compare that with the total % of adults in that age range who play games - 19%.
I don’t have figures for which percentage of the US is in that range, but it’s somewhere in the vicinity of 60% (http://nationalatlas.gov/articles/people/a_age2000.html). The total population is around 300M; 60% of that is 180M. 19% own some form of console, *including* handhelds and older consoles, and that figure is around 36M. When you figure that many of those people are 1) in the same family, and 2) own handhelds or older consoles, it seems clear that the 25M would vastly overstate the number of individual console owners if interpreted that way.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:16 am
It doesn’t matter either way, the point is still the same. If 72% of respondents play games and only 3% of respondents have multiple consoles, that’s miniscule.
October 13th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Not really. Relative to the 72%, sure - but they get that figure by defining “games” extremely loosely. The market of hardcore console owners was significant enough to support between 2-4 consoles in past years without too much difficulty. So if a significant fraction of them own more than one console (next-gen console, by the way, not *any* console), we’re talking serious money, even if on a relative basis they’re small.
October 13th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
“The market of hardcore console owners was significant enough to support between 2-4 consoles in past years without too much difficulty.”
I disagree. I think it’s been quite difficult. My guess is that Atari, NEC, Apple, SNK, and Sega agrees and likely so does MS and Nintendo. Sony is still hemmorhaging money, so is MS. The xbox cost billions just to make a foothold in the hardcore market. There’s not enough hardcore gamers to support this market. The financial success of the 360 and the PS3 is not yet even certain. That’s why the Wii went the other way. They saw it. The point in all this is, lots of people play games. Very few ever move to the point where they own multiple consoles. I was surprised to learn this. Reading on the internet, you get the impression that everyone owns multiple. Clearly, most don’t. Meaning multiple console owners (super hardcore gamers) are not a growth market. The loosely defined 72 percent is where it’s at. I’m just curious how those numbers shake out in Japan.