One Prospective Answer
September 4th, 2008IGN takes a stab at the “what next” question, for the 360 at least. Their prescriptions are basically of three types: cut pricing, redesign the hardwre, and redesign the extras. As one commenter notes, this might satisfy either the hardcore (who love things like hardware revamps) or the casuals (who could benefit from more accessible controllers or some such) but leaves the fat middle high and dry.
The pricing issue is essentially adding a peripheral price drop alongside the hardware pricing announcement - I fully agree on the concept, because peripheral pricing is outrageous for non-cosmetic requirements like wireless adapters ($100) or HDMI cables ($70-$150). If I can buy an HDMI cable online for $10, this isn’t just insulting, it’s downright offensive. But regardless, it’s not going to move consoles. People just don’t research that stuff before making a purchase decision.
The hardware redesign is more interesting; IGN suggests adding Blu-Ray in addition to changing the design of the console and adding a “casual-friendly” remote. I could see this being useful, and at a bare minimum BD should be offered as an optional add-on. On the software side, playing up Netflix probably isn’t going to get Microsoft anywhere for a while - people just aren’t using these types of services widely yet - but making Live free would be a huge step to downplaying some of the major structural advantages that Sony retains.
In fact, these mostly seem like prescriptions to fend off Sony rather than to move the industry forward in significant ways. That may be what Microsoft needs right now. Sony definitely has more momentum.
Posted in Geoff, Microsoft, Xbox 360 |
September 5th, 2008 at 1:37 am
I hope you’re not suggesting Sony has any way to catch up to the 360. In games, in features, in community, in sales.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:00 am
Laesp-
The PS3 is already catching up to the 360 in sales (worldwide). Many would argue that it has surpassed it in features (Blu-Ray, bigger HD), and a few others would even suggest that the games are there now (MGS4, 3rd party games basically at parity now, interesting PSN projects, and more games coming).
I’m still playing (and own) far more 360 games than PS3, but the gap between them is certainly closing in many ways. The 360s biggest asset now is it’s online community, which is quite honestly why I think many people still buy their multiplatform games for it (I know I still do).
September 5th, 2008 at 10:08 am
My point isn’t that it has to catch up - but that there’s not much else either MS or Sony can do to stand out too much for most people who haven’t already purchased a console. Since they’ve basically achieved parity, you would expect sales to be roughly equal. Interesting to see that there may not be a clear “winner” this generation, aside from Nintendo… and I still doubt that Nintendo’s success is sustainable long-term.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
I certainly think the PS3 will catch (and pass) the 360 in overall sales. It’s already passing it on a global monthly basis. It matches and arguably surpasses the 360 in features (especially if you consider reliability a feature).
The only issue I see is the library is still a bit shallow and the price is still a hurdle for mass market adoption. Everyone always quotes that “80 percent of the PS2s were sold at $199 and less” so I’m guessing similar statistics will hold true this gen. I wonder if the 360 will see some of that love with the new price drop? I’m not sure it will. The arcade at $199 still requires a game purchase (and doesn’t include an HDMI cable) which will likely bring the price back around $250+.
As for the redesign they talk about on IGN, I’m not sure we’ll see much there. I think they’re still recalcitrant on Blu-Ray and they’ve ceded the mass market to the Wii. They seem to have set their sights almost exclusively on the core and specifically online-focused gamers they’ve already been successful with. The only problem is that I think they’re discovering that there are a lot fewer of them than they had anticipated.
And Geoff, just out of curiosity, what do you see as long-term-unsustainable in Nintendo’s model? By “long term” are you meaning the generation following this one?
September 6th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Also, forgot to mention, this had me a bit befuddled..
“Interesting to see that there may not be a clear “winner” this generation, aside from Nintendo”
What’s interesting about not having a clear winner, aside from the clear winner?
I think it’s been pretty consistent. One console wins by a wide margin and everyone else fights for leftovers and hopes their business made enough money to go at it again (on in the case of MS, they don’t care if they made money or not). It’s no different this time really. And while the performance gap is significantly wider this time, it has also consistently been the weakest powered console that sells the most.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Well i’ve remained out of the loop regarding sales figures TBH. Got a bit sick of it. However, i believe MSG4, like GTA4, underperformed saleswise, droppin gout of the 10 Top Ten within a month.
as for features: didnt MS do that Netflix deal? Also, i read from a news site somewhere that Bluray feature wasn’t translating into as many sales as one hoped.
As for games selections: i think you’re missing a few exclusivos from the 360 this year! Not to mention, multiplat games usually ratios out into 2:1 for 360/PS3, respectively. Obviously. Because the former is oft technologically superior in practice, while the latter is superior mostly in theoretical performance.
*grins
September 8th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
So what is with these sales stats? Are they just completely fabricated. Are they anywhere near accurate esimates?
Then I look at figures like this and can’t believe that 360 would be anywhere near Nintendo given that they sold not even half as many 360’s in the same month.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
These match my research from the summer (although the Wii looks a bit low - maybe a few hundred thousand off). I don’t think Nintendo has anything to worry about, though - 4M is a lot of consoles.
September 9th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Yeah but 9 million is even more. So the PS3 has caught up in current sales, but it is still way behind in market saturation. The Wii has a decent lead on the 360.
In terms of individual games sales (which is where 2 out of 3 make all their money) the Wii is way ahead followed by 360 and significantly lagging behind is the PS3.
My question now is, how can you consider the PS3 anywhere close to the 360? I realize you were originally discussing current console sales.
However, I don’t think console sales are much of an indicator of success at this point. Games sales is what you need to look at the judge the success of the console at this point. Obviously selling more consoles means selling games, but unless Sony starts moving a ridiculous volume of consoles they aren’t catching up any time soon.