What can Sony do?
October 5th, 2007Aegies over at Eat-Sleep-Game has an interesting analysis of whether the rumored $400 40GB PS3 can actually help save Sony from the Gamecube’s fate. I generally agree with his points, which are summarized below:
1) A strong software lineup for the 360, combined with more reliable hardware, will be difficult for Sony to match. There are still no real killer apps for the system, and several PS3 exclusives, like Unreal Tournament 3, have been delayed until next year.
2) Sony hasn’t been able to demonstrate a significant technological advantage for the PS3 over the 360. In fact, many multi-platform games have so far shown the opposite, and come out substantially later than the 360 version.
3) The cheaper PS3s continue to actually remove features, such as backwards compatibility, which would potentially be a huge asset to the 120M+ PS2 owners in the world.
All great points, with the first being perhaps the most important. The PS3 has a couple potentially strong titles coming out in the next couple months in Ratchet and Clank and Uncharted, but I wouldn’t expect either of them to really sell many systems in the face of Halo 3, Bioshock, and Mass Effect (not to mention Mario and Smash Bros.) This is particularly true when the PS3, even with the rumored price drop, will still be the most expensive system before Microsoft even responds with their own price drops and bundles. Will people REALLY want to shell out more cash just so they can play Ratchet and Clank and Uncharted over Halo 3 or Mario? I think you know the answer.
So, aside from praying that Metal Gear Solid 4 and Final Fantasy XIII don’t get delayed, what can Sony do? Well, I’m no expert “analyst“, but here’s my two cents:
1) Sony needs to compete directly in price with the 360. $400 probably won’t cut it against a $350 or even cheaper 360, particularly when it will likely be bundled with a game or 2 as well with Halo 3 beckoning behind the counter. Sony needs to come as close as possible to match the 360 on the pricing front so that at least the price can be taken out of the calculating consumer’s equation.
2) I’ll get a lot of hate for this, but until Sony has a killer app to tout, the PS3 should be marketed as a Blu-ray movie player that also plays games. It’s not that the PS3 doesn’t have good games, but there’s a big difference between a Ninja Gaiden remake and MGS4 and Final Fantasy. Since the PS3 doesn’t have an IR port (unless the new version does, which I doubt), it should be packaged with their Bluetooth remote and a Blu-ray with tons of videos and demos of current and upcoming Blu-rays and games.
3) Sony should really price at least the games they publish at $50 or less. This would at least give them a price advantage for their own games against Microsoft’s own lineup, who abandoned this practice soon after launch. If the console is going to be a little more expensive, they could at least lure more customers if they promised cheaper games.
Other then that, I’m really not sure what else Sony could do at this point. They’re basically at the mercy of the talent of their developers. What do you think?
Posted in Business, Jeff, PS3, Sony |
October 5th, 2007 at 7:33 am
Reading this post just reinforces my thoughts that Sony has a LOT of work to do. Its funny though, because the only reason we’re even talking about Sony getting back into the game is because MS has fumbled so badly with the 360. Between its being overpriced (or at the very least, not coming down nearly soon enough) and its horrible RROD issues, it has almost completely squandered its 1 year advantage. If the 360 had arrived at $349, been priced down to $299 within the first year, and had reliable hardware, MS would be untouchable, perhaps even by the Wii.
October 5th, 2007 at 9:56 am
I still think you’re underestimating the power of Final Fantasy (and MGS). Apparently, 360 sales have *doubled* on Halo 3’s release, and Final Fantasy has a huge position in the gaming market. If the price drops to $400, I could easily see the PS3, if not beating the 360, at least no longer being the laggard of the industry.
Also, I disagree on the Blu-Ray front. It’s just not going to sell to the mass-market as a blu-Ray player, and you’re muddying the message once FF and MGS finally do hit the market. The solution isn’t to avoid a killer app, it’s to get the apps on the market ASAP.
I do agree on the game pricing front though. I also agree with cisco - MS has definitely wasted a lot of the advantages that it was given this generation, even though Sony’s weakness has prevented it from capitalizing on those issues.
October 5th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Who’s underestimating the power of FF and MGS? I mention it several times in my post… Unfortunately they don’t have any way of speeding the development of those games, and they just have to pray they release on time and are as good as people are hoping.
October 5th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
“Apparently, 360 sales have *doubled* on Halo 3’s release, and Final Fantasy has a huge position in the gaming market.”
Halo is bigger in NA than FF, iirc. FF’s biggest impact would be in Japan, where Nintendo’s Wii has already sealed Sony’s fate. Not too sure how many FF fanatics there are in Europe.
Not too sure how MGS popularity is in NA, although i hear it’s as popular as Gran Turismo in Japan [anyone can back me up on this?]
Basically, FF13 and MGS4 equal Oot or Mario64 [respectively, to N64]. IMHO, i thnk your overestimating these two titles, Geoff. And underestimating Bluray [altho this is arguable]. The sad thing is it’s getting clearer that PS3 sales wouldn’t even touch N64’s 32 million WW sales, although I’m pretty sure it will outperform GC [just a gut feeling]. Of course, even N64’s software seems to trumph PS3’s software when it’s all done, altho this is just guessing too.
Nice article, tho.
PS: Who here bets FF and MGS will ultimately turn up timed exclusives [even if it is delayed up to one year or so for teh 360]? I do!
PPS: who here bets Wii will turn out to be the console for mere casuals and Nintendo fans for 90% of its software? Me!!
hehehe…
October 5th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Laesp-
Well, I don’t have all the statistics in front of me, but I think FF7 is probably largely responsible for Sony’s 2-generation dominance. Perhaps the name has gotten a little old in the past 5 iterations and billion spinoffs that it’s created, but they all still manage to sell fairly well.
The thing is, outside of GTA, there really aren’t any other things like Halo. That doesn’t mean that games like MGS and FF aren’t absolutely crucial to Sony, though.
October 6th, 2007 at 7:45 am
While those are both big titles, I don’t think the Final Fantasy name generates as much love as it used to. While I don’t doubt it will be a system seller — and I agree that it will probably be a PS3 exclusive — I think you’re overestimating its impact. Time was, you were right — but I think that bird has flown.
Laesp: I would stake money on MGS4 being PS3 exclusive. It’s stuck to Sony like glue, as has Kojima.
October 6th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Rob,