Weekly Chatcast #2
September 26th, 2007It’s that time again for another Chatcast. This week Geoff and I discuss games that are “Sent to Die”, Metroid Prime 3’s moderate failure in sales and what it means for Nintendo and its fans, and to restart an old feature, a “Pre-Review” discussion on the upcoming “Orange Box”. It looks a bit long, but it’s a quick read. Enjoy!
Jeff: So, you noted from Level Up’s analysis of August’s NPD numbers the discussion about games “sent to die”. You picked “Army of Two” as one. What about that game makes it seem like it’ll flop?
Geoff: I think it’s a combination of a few things: first, the game’s release schedule (if it’s too close to other big games (*cough* Halo 3 *cough*) odds are that it’ll be overlooked. Second, if it isn’t conceptually distinct - if it’s an improved version of an existing genre - there’s less incentive for people to focus on it. And finally, hype is definitely a factor. Army of Two just hasn’t received a lot of hype, I think largely because it’s a game whose gimmick doesn’t translate well into description… if you can’t play it, it’s just not that high impact.
Geoff: Do you have a nomination?
Jeff: I don’t disagree, necessarily… There are really a ton of potentially good games that could flop coming out. I think
Geoff:
Jeff: There’s been some positive buzz on the game, and I’ve started to see a fair amount of marketing for it, but I just don’t think it’ll be able to penetrate the dense holiday market. As you mentioned, there’s already other games in the genre coming out around it.
Geoff: I’ve always been a little confused as to why so many people ship their titles around the holidays. Given the competition, it seemed like a loser’s game. But the more I think about it, the more it seems almost rational: if no one ships then, a huge amount of money is being left on the table. It’s essentially a Prisoner’s Dilemma.
Jeff: I think it’s just a matter of trying to cash in on the surge in general sales. If you get lucky, maybe you’ll have a surprise hit. If you’re not so lucky, maybe just the general increase in sales around the holidays will still bump your game up more than if it had been released at another time.
Jeff: Or if you’re really unlucky, I suppose you could have a good game just get completely lost in the shuffle, like these games.
Geoff: I can’t recall the statistics, but very, very few games - in any release frame - end up making money
Jeff: But if, for instance, Jericho gets really well reviewed, it would probably get a big boost. The trick is to release really well reviewed games during the holiday. If it’s merely a “good” B game it’ll probably get lost in the avalanche of other “good” B games and really “hot” A games.
Geoff: I’m not sure… I can think of well-reviewed holiday games that failed miserably
Geoff: I mean - think about how we buy games
Geoff: I can’t afford every AAA title
Geoff: in the same way that I can’t watch great movies all at once. if they all come out simultaneously, it’s likely that I either won’t end up buying one,
Geoff: or I’ll buy one much later at a discount
Jeff: I suppose it’s how you define “AAA”. To me, there are probably maybe 5-6 true AAA games this year
Jeff: maybe not even that many
Jeff: I think the question for many is what to buy between those AAA games
Jeff: Nintendo has its 3, and in some ways already sort of failed with their first of the season (Metroid Prime 3)
Geoff: Another topic we wanted to talk about - how could Prime fail?
Geoff: Honestly, I was really surprised by the relatively low sales… it’s not like there’s a lot of other competition on the system. Although admittedly, I haven’t gotten my copy yet either (for purely personal reasons)
Jeff: I mean, I suppose it’s hard to say it’s a complete “failure” when it sold 218k in August (when only released for like 4 days in August), but considering that it’s one of Nintendo’s “Big 3″ this year, it’s kind of pathetic when it can’t even outsell Wii Play in the same month.
Geoff: Well - yes, I’d agree failure is the wrong word
Jeff: According to VGChartz (a source i know many people hate, but I have yet to find any other good centralized source for this information), it’s sold about 430k units..
Geoff: That doesn’t seem terrible
Jeff: Well, no, it’s not “terrible”, but compare it to Bioshock, a game it should’ve definitely been competitive with…
Jeff: considering it’s franchise, the larger install base, and its positive (if not quite as positive) reviews…
Geoff: I think the relevant comparison might actually be the previous Prime titles
Geoff: Prime 2, I believe, sold less than 500k copies in the first two months
Geoff: so this is actually an improvement
Jeff: Sure, it’s an improvement from a relative failure a few years back…
Jeff: but it does make some amount of sense to compare it to its current competition as well, no?
Jeff: VGChartz has Bioshock (360 edition only) at 750k.
Jeff: and of course…
Jeff: We now have Halo 3…
Jeff: which sold, I think, a billion copies in 1 hour
Geoff: Well… you also have to consider relative audience sizes. First off, Bioshock is a hugely hyped title for a console that is really targeted to an audience that plays Bioshock. Prime is a more niche title that I don’t think was particularly well marketed on a console that is trying to really move further from “hardcore” titles. Halo 3 is also a huge outlier… I mean, it’s Halo.
Jeff: I agree, we can’t expect it to perform at Halo-like levels…
Geoff: I’m not saying it’s done wonderfully, but I don’t think it’s done badly either and it still has a lot of potential. After all, I will buy it, but haven’t yet either, and I’m really part of the main audience
Jeff: but to be honest, Metroid should be a HUGE franchise for Nintendo
Jeff: Metroid goes back further than Halo and there’s really no reason why they couldn’t make it at least 1/2 or 1/3 as popular as Halo. It just makes no sense, and the fact that it sold less than Wii Play last month, despite only being available at the end of the month, leaves me very worried about the future of the little white console.
Jeff: There are basically 3 announced games left on the console that I really care about, and after that I just assume it will follow the same pattern (for me) as Nintendo’s last 2 consoles…
Jeff: Waiting several months for a big “franchise” game.
Jeff: With Mario and SSB coming this year and Mario Kart early next year, what am I really looking forward to after that? An unannounced Zelda game, perhaps?
Geoff: Those are frankly two different issues
Geoff: Whether or not Prime is wildly successful is not the same as whether or not the Wii is “worth owning”
Geoff: The latter is undeniably a bigger issue, but one that I think we (and others) have pretty much debated to death
Jeff: Well, its relevant as to whether Nintendo continues to make games I care about.
Jeff: If Nintendo looks at their sales from month to month and sees Wii Play and Mario Party continually at the top of them, what kind of games do you think they’re going to focus on?
Geoff: But to the extent that hardcore games don’t sell as well - especially in established franchises with well-reviewed titles - isn’t that sort of justified?
Geoff: Why would Nintendo try to make games that only a small percentage of their audience seems to want?
Jeff: I’ll agree with that, although there’s at least a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy in there.
Jeff: I’m also wondering, even if the “hardcore gamer” is being ignored…
Jeff: What exactly is Nintendo’s new audience really playing?
Geoff: Explain the prophecy part?
Jeff: Well, if they think their audience doesn’t like hardcore games, they’ll make less hardcore games, market less hardcore games, sell less hardcore games..
Jeff: etc
Jeff: it goes back to the poor marketing effort for Metroid Prime 3
Geoff: I was inclined to agree, but this is the first generation with this strategy. I don’t know any Nintendo fans who didn’t buy a Wii. So the audience should be there, at least in theory… and at least for Prime 3
Geoff: I’m not sure we’re going to get anywhere debating Nintendo’s Wii strategy any more though
Geoff: It’s still a black box question mark
Jeff: Well, that’s why I’m wondering exactly what people are playing on their Wii’s right now.
Jeff: The people who aren’t buying Metroid Prime 3
Jeff: And if it’s still sort of a novelty for a lot of them that will, at some point, die out.
Jeff: (Nintendo obviously has had enough hype to sustain sellouts for a year+)
Geoff: OK - should we move to the pre-review?
Jeff: yeah, definitely
Jeff: What game?
Geoff: How about Orange Box?
Jeff: Ok
Jeff: I’m thinking a 9.1
Jeff: It’ll be docked because it’s basically a several year old product, a year old product, and then 3 new but “smaller” products packaged together
Jeff: but all of the products are top-notch
Jeff: and Team Fortress 2 could extend it’s value, if you’re not already playing Halo 3 religiously
Geoff: I’d have to agree on the score
Geoff: Although I might drop it to a 9.0
Geoff: It’s going to be hard for reviewers to ignore the fact that there are basically 2 extra games included. At the same time, I’ve been disappointed by how Half-Life 2 has sort of betrayed the promise of episodic gaming
Geoff: The games have been far too far apart to form any kind of cohesive whole
Jeff: Valve says they’re stopping after 3 now because they haven’t been able to keep up with it.
Jeff: at least, they’re going to “see what the fans want”
Jeff: Speaking of which, if you get it, which version are you going to get?
Geoff: What are the options again?
Geoff: I don’t get what Valve is so busy with
Geoff: HL is their bread and butter
Jeff: Oh, I meant PC or 360?
Geoff: if they neglect their core franchise, then I’m not sure where they’ll end up
Jeff: They seemed to do ok after neglecting it for something like 7 years
Geoff: I’ll probably get the PC version… I still don’t love FPS’s on consoles, and HL has too many PC roots for me
Jeff: I have HL2 (somewhere) for PC… still unbeaten. I’ve been trying to find my discs to re-install it, but now I’m just wondering if I should pick up the orange box for 360 and play it on there…
Jeff: I feel like I’m more likely to play and enjoy it.
Geoff: Heh. I played it, and liked it a lot… I think I liked #2 more than the original Half-Life
Jeff: I was really enjoying it too, but for some reason I just stopped playing a lot of games on my computer. Just seems more comfortable to play with a controller on a couch, and then not have to worry about graphics settings and such.
Jeff: Not only that, there’s the XBox Live support
Jeff: which should theoretically make the online gaming a bit more enjoyable.
Jeff: So, not much variation on Orange Box, 9.1 and 9.0
Geoff: Haha
Geoff: yeah
Geoff: it’s going to be too polished, I think, to do much worse
Jeff: yeah
Jeff: although the whole averaging always brings things down, so we’ll see
Jeff: ’til next time
And that wraps it up for this week’s installment. See you next time!
Posted in Chatcast, Commentary, Jeff, Wii, Xbox 360 |
September 27th, 2007 at 12:19 am
Wii is dead to me. I mean the software.
September 27th, 2007 at 8:47 am
I just bought Dragon Blade. I’ll be picking up hottest party as soon as I see it in a store. Prime 3 is fantastic. There are more games coming out on Wii that I want than I can afford. There is literally too much to play. If you don’t agree, thats totally fine and I understand completely, but don’t think that wii owners have nothing to play. There’s tons. I totally can’t wait for Fire Emblem, BWii and GHIII. Smarty Pants looks so fun. I love trivia games. The only real Wiikness (my term) is a lack of solid RPG titles. I (and a huge amount of the wii user base) couldn’t care less about all the shooter/war games on the other consoles. That genre, (halo/bioshock/Darkness/whatever) is just one big blur to a lot of us. I think its funny that people hold up Wii-play and its high sales month after month as this example of the downfall of the wii software lineup. I played the shit outta Wii-play (and still do) and so did a lot of people I know. If it would have had online leader boards, that game would have really blown up. Me and a few guys I work with are constantly going back and forth with hi score battles. Every monday morning, the talk is, “So, how many tanks did you get this weekend?” or “So were you able to do any better in shooting range?”. Its just so simple, its perfect for gamers who have families and don’t have the ability to put in an hour every night. I’m talking the 30+ crowd. This is a group that has been pretty much ignored up until now. Adult gamers who go way back and want to be able to game with their kids? There are a LOT of us, and the Wii and its lineup is nearly ideal, and have brought us back in, big time. I don’t have it yet, but many of my co-workers (all adults who enjoy the wii) are talking about carnival games. I wasn’t intending on getting it, but its getting great buzz around the office. No one even knows the reviews have been piss poor. All they know is that they’re having fun with it, and its selling on word of mouth alone. The wii is literally breaking the mold by having such a broad user base. I love it. Gaming isn’t just for gamers any more, which can understandably have gamers worried but trust me the Wii user base is being well served and its only getting better. Manhunt 2? Alone in the Dark? Fatal Frame? Since when have these franchises even batted an eyelash at a Nintendo console and yet, they are all coming. Even the force unleashed decided to make the jump. The wave is building. I just wish I could convinve my wife to let me spend more on games.
September 27th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
I agree with the top half of your post. But the bottom seems to contradict itself. You say that Wii’s perfect for the 30 range crowd and focus on that, then turn around and say that it has a broad base. Ok, that’s not technically contradicting, but you focus a bit too much on the 30 range I think. You make it sound like a console just fo them which is almost laughable amongst other groups. Toward the very bottom I start to agree with you again though. There are actually a lot of “hardcore” titles that are coming to Wii but sadly, only their 360 and PS3 counterparts are getting the publicity. I think Wii does have the broadest(is that a word?) user base, the problem is uneven distribution in advertizing, insistance by some devs to make Wii versions inferior in some way to other versions of the same game, and stereotypical YouTube comenters (and other ignorant internet users) that refuse to allow Wii to recieve good news.
The issue is probably more complicated but that’s just what I see on it.
Happy hunting,
FX-1
September 27th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Ok, good point. I didn’t really word it correctly.
This sentence, “The wii is literally breaking the mold by having such a broad user base.”
Should be, “The wii is literally breaking the mold by having such an expanded user base.”
Meaning, it has broken the mold by successfully appealing to groups outside the more narrowly focused gaming set that companies target with generic shooters and sports games, the same market that the 360 is targeting with laser like accuracy. My point was not that there are no games for that group, just that not everyone gaming on Wii belongs to that group, such that the selection is actually pretty solid.
September 27th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Good point!? You were talking to me right? THat has to be a first from this site!
September 27th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
I know, I almost passed out typing it.
But give credit where credit is due. If someone reads one of my lengthy comments with enough attentiveness to point out something that is unclear, well, thats what I hope for or I wouldn’t waste my time typing my idiot opinions.
September 27th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
I have to say that the Wii lineup just flat-out doesn’t appeal to me, and I *have* one. Every time I buy a Wii game I think I’m going to like, I find it boring, overly simplistic and difficult to control accurately. I’m pretty sure I’m not just a simpleton, so that’s my only other explanation.
I think sometime soon I’m gonna just buy Excite Truck, and if I hate that too, write off the whole console. This is ridiculous.
September 27th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
@Rob,
Thats too bad. It sucks to hear that when I’m having so much fun with it. I have lots of little gripes but overall, its providing me the most entertainment of any console I’ve owned thus far and I’ll openly admit there are is a lot of shovelware on the platform. It seems like you either click with the controls immediately(on a game by game basis) or you don’t. And if you don’t, it can really take some time to get a feel for them. I’ve probably said this a dozen time but I was SO disappointed when I first got it and put CoD3 in. The controls actually felt broken. But I put more time into it and tweaked the settings and after a while it honestly felt superior to dual analog. Now we’re at metroid prime 3 and I can’t imagine going back to dual analog full time.
Halo 3 feels like I’m playing games old school, I keep wanting to point at the screen and I can’t. Its really weird.
Also, if you play excite truck, you MUST put in your own music on SD card. Trust me on this.
September 27th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
It is impossible that not a single Wii game appeals to you. What games have you played? I’m tired of hearing this write off the whole console crap. You’re just an ignoramus if you claim you can write off Wii at this point. You truly have no concept of the games available and coming or you just feel like spreading Nintendo hate, those are the only two possibilities I can think of without resorting to accusations of insanity.
September 27th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Jeff and I debated raising this issue since 1) it makes people angry, and 2) not much has happened since the last time we discussed it. We decided to include it because we think that Prime’s sales so far raise some interesting questions… but I at least am loathe to draw long-term conclusions about the Wii’s success as a result, especially now. By all accounts MP3 is a great game and as soon as I’ve hooked up my Wii again I’ll be running out to buy it.
September 27th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Rob-
I’m surprised that you didn’t like MP3. Even though it still makes me slightly ill and there are some aspects of it that annoy me (pulling the controller “back” still doesn’t work for me all the time), I actually really enjoyed the game (enough to 100% it on Veteran mode in 17.5 hours). (Btw, those with Wiis should give me your Wii numbers so we can exchange those friend tokens. Once I’m back in town I’ll share mine). The Wii controls work very well and the game is clearly designed around having that kind of precision aiming (particularly the bosses).
With that said, I’m not necessarily convinced that the Wii controls are BETTER for FPS games, just different. Metroid works really well because the way the bosses are designed, you need to pinpoint its weak spots and fire at it, which can actually be tricky and challenging. Not only that, but the bosses are often designed to make you unlock your targeting. They don’t necessarily “break” your lock, but if you don’t manage your lock-on properly you won’t be able to dodge or destroy incoming hits… it’s actually pretty cool and works brilliantly, and is literally something that just wouldn’t work nearly as well with a Twin Analog setup.
It’s hard for me to imagine playing a twitch-trigger game like Halo 3,though, with the Wii remote, and I feel like I’d be flailing all over the place trying to keep my aim right. One thing I realized when playing MP3 is that it’s sometimes nice to have a “resting” position for aiming, which you automatically get with an analog stick (just don’t press a direction) but is quite difficult with the Wii Remote. Again, it’s not that it’s WORSE, but I feel like it actually requires a different kind of game in order to take full advantage of. A “Standard” FPS like Halo may not actually be the best fit with the Wii Remote.
I’m interested to see how the next Medal of Honor works out and will at least be giving it a rent to see how well the online mode works with the Wii Remote setup. If it works really well maybe my claims regarding the controls are unfounded. Even so, I still don’t necessarily think the Wii Controls are automatically better. (I will say that they most DEFINITELY are better for a game like RE4, though… No way would I have been able to do all the target practice rounds with a standard Twin Analog setup) I hope more games are made with a control setup similar to RE4… Hint Hint, Capcom).
September 27th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
“It is impossible that not a single Wii game appeals to you. What games have you played? I’m tired of hearing this write off the whole console crap. You’re just an ignoramus if you claim you can write off Wii at this point. You truly have no concept of the games available and coming or you just feel like spreading Nintendo hate, those are the only two possibilities I can think of without resorting to accusations of insanity.”
I’ve been a proponent of Nintendo’s since the NES, and some of my favorite games of last-gen were Gamecube games. I have an absolutely stupid number of DS games. But because I disagree with you I’m a fanboy and an ignoramus? It’s “impossible” for me to dislike the Wii games I’ve played?
I have ten Wii games, including Wii Sports, Warioware, Metroid Prime 3, Zelda and Super Paper Mario. Only two of those ten were worth a damn, and then only for very a short time.
I understand that tastes vary — you need to understand that too. So far, nothing has grabbed me except for Neutopia on the Virtual Console.
September 28th, 2007 at 12:17 am
WHOA! 12 comments! All becuz of meee? w00t!
@Rob: just ignore FX, he’s not worth it. 360 = the new PS2 in quality gaming experience. Trust me, it’s great.
September 28th, 2007 at 6:39 am
Yeah, I have a 360 as well and I love it. One of my favorite consoles.
September 28th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
For all you know impossible could’ve been figurative. I meant it in a “semi-literal” fashion. I never said that it was because you disagreed with me. I know die hard Nintendo fans that don’t like Zelda or Metroid. But Wii’s library has just so many kinds of games that I don’t see how one could possibly say they don’t like any. And just forget that “write off the whole console” crap, either way it doesn’t make sense. And I never said you were a fanboy.
@Laspy: Don’t bring whatever personal hatred you seem to harbor for me to every entry here. Argue against whatever points I make that you disagree with, of course, but don’t be an ass, please, don’t turn ALttF into YouTube in terms of commenter stupidity. You’ve hated me since my earliest, even completely neutral posts so just stop trying to persuade others to hate me because of your prejudice.